Went to an event by futurists a while ago and their mantra is ‘know first, be first, profit first’, a point of view supported by luminaries such as John F Kennedy (USA President).
“Change is the only law of life. And those who only look to the past of present are certain to miss the future”
Another take from John Lennon “Life is what happens to you while you are making other plans”.
And an Ancient Chinese proverb ” The person who does not worry about the future will shortly have worries about the present”.
So how to know the future ? Futurists have a collections of mind sets, and tools they use to do this, and there are various websites that support their activities that could be useful to Business Studies teachers trying inspire a class on innovation, the future, their part in it, and new businesses in NZ.
First the mindsets:
1. Global versus local – focus on global trends rather than local.
2. Long term versus short term – typical windows for future studies are 10,20, 50, 100 years.
3. Multiple futures versus one future – always consider a range of options, rather than ‘zero-in’ on one preferred.
4. Track trends across a wide range of sources rather than collect info/news from same familiar sources. News items are not the trends, but may be collated to reveal them.
5. Work cross industry rather than industry specific – look for correlations from diverse industries rather than focus entirely on one industry.
6. Multiple trend drivers versus economic trends drivers – Use P.E.S.T.L.E, etc.
7. Vision versus tactics -Tactics to achieve a vision arrive after the vision – not before.
8. Big Picture versus micro detail -Stay macro i focus. Avoid drilling down to level of detail.
9. Connected versus isolated – create and maintain a network of peers.
And now the tools:
1.Environmental Scanning – “a systemic process of collecting information” to help an organisation see the forces affecting them. Also recommend the technique of mixed level scanning by Etzioni. (google it) Made easy today by IT using websites such as these ;
www.trendwatching.com
www.ShapingTomorrow.com
www.google.com/trends
www.google.com/zeitgeist
2. Scenario planning. Scenarios are “a description of what might happen”.
Lovely quote from The Terminator in the book How to think like a Futurist by Craig Rispin goes;
Sarah Connor ” So its from the future, is that right?”
Reese : “One possible future. From your point of view”.
Excellent article on scenario planning found here;
www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html
3. Dephi method (named after Oracle of Delphi).
Ask individual experts their ideas on future over several rounds of discussion, without allowing them to compare notes. After each round circulate the anonymous collated answers and this will inform the next round of predictions, as each expert adjusts their view. (Widely used as a planning technique also).
Other useful references from the book mentioned above are;
ted.com/index.php/talks/tags/id/297
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